🇷🇴 Romanian diaspora
🇲🇩 Moldovan diaspora
Election rounds are equally spaced. Colour identifies the series; line style identifies the election family: European dotted, parliamentary dashed, presidential solid.
How voting options and behaviour evolved across the Romanian and Moldovan diasporas — reported ballot totals, not registered diaspora. Registered-diaspora counts (Eurostat, MAE, AEP) disagree wildly; the ballots cast do not.
Diaspora Facebook groups (D7.2 InfoSpace Mapping) — homeland → country → its groups. Node size = members, colour = political side. Drag to rotate · scroll to zoom · hover for details.
Hypothesis — pro-EU Romanian-only voters (estimate)
pro-EU Romanian-only = pro-EU Romanian voters − pro-EU Moldovan voters, per country, paired by the closest electoral event. Dual Romanian-Moldovan pro-EU citizens are assumed to appear in both counts; subtracting the pro-EU Moldovan voters isolates the pro-EU Romanian-only electorate. Voter counts only.
2020–2021: RO 2020 parliamentary − MD 2020 presidential R2. 2024–2025: RO 2025 presidential R2 − MD 2025 parliamentary.
⚠ Strong assumption: every pro-EU Moldovan voter is also a pro-EU Romanian voter. Where pro-EU Moldovan voters exceed pro-EU Romanian ones the estimate turns negative — flagged, not hidden.
Method
Why raw counts: registered-diaspora denominators (Eurostat / MAE / AEP) disagree wildly, so turnout shares are unstable. The reported ballot counts are known — so we plot those.
Report series: Romania reproduces Figures II.1–II.3 in SPINE_Full_Report_v7.docx: the EU-27 aggregate, United Kingdom and Republic of Moldova across all nine rounds, using total voters (black), the report's explicit pro-European / liberal-democratic actors (blue), and eurosceptic / illiberal actors (red). Unlisted actors stay “other” and are not folded into blue. The parliamentary points use the Chamber. Figure II.2 is the United Kingdom (an EU member during the 2019 vote, outside thereafter); Figure II.3 is Romanian voters in the Republic of Moldova. Other country views apply the same classification.
Moldova reproduces Figure II.1 in Moldova_Diaspora_Report_v10.docx: all four presidential rounds, with Sandu in blue and Dodon / Stoianoglo in red. The black line covers all candidates. The 2024 first round is the official CEC aggregate: 239,419 valid votes across 231 abroad stations, including Sandu 169,294 and Stoianoglo 19,287; the blue line dips because votes split among 11 candidates.
Planned granularity: the EU-supportive group will be split into party families — centre-right, social-democratic, liberal, green & left, national-conservative — shown separately from far-right / populist platforms (per-party extraction from the source ballots).
Presence map: coloured by the latest valid votes (the only complete, real signal) or by lean. The Eurostat/MAE/AEP registered estimates are too sparse to map. Moldova adds CEC gender + age-cohort turnout demographics per country; those totals include invalid ballots and may exceed valid votes.
Sources: RO — Diaspora_by_Country correct.xlsx and Figures II.1–II.3 of SPINE_Full_Report_v7.docx. MD — Moldova_ALL_Elections_MASTER_v8.xlsx and Figure II.1 of Moldova_Diaspora_Report_v10.docx. The separate presence map and Romanian-only estimate may also use the verified Moldovan parliamentary auxiliary rounds; those rounds are intentionally absent from the presidential chart.