🇷🇴 Romania
🇲🇩 Moldova
Time axis is scaled chronologically (spacing reflects the real intervals between elections). Markers = actual rounds. Independent Y scales per country. Absolute voter counts.
How voting options and behaviour evolved across the Romanian and Moldovan diasporas — votes actually cast, not registered diaspora. Registered-diaspora counts (Eurostat, MAE, AEP) disagree wildly; the ballots cast do not.
Diaspora Facebook groups (D7.2 InfoSpace Mapping) — homeland → country → its groups. Node size = members, colour = political side. Drag to rotate · scroll to zoom · hover for details.
Hypothesis — pro-EU Romanian-only voters (estimate)
pro-EU Romanian-only = pro-EU Romanian voters − pro-EU Moldovan voters, per country, paired by the closest electoral event. Dual Romanian-Moldovan pro-EU citizens are assumed to appear in both counts; subtracting the pro-EU Moldovan voters isolates the pro-EU Romanian-only electorate. Voter counts only.
2020–2021: RO 2020 parliamentary − MD 2020 presidential R2. 2024–2025: RO 2025 presidential R2 − MD 2025 parliamentary.
⚠ Strong assumption: every pro-EU Moldovan voter is also a pro-EU Romanian voter. Where pro-EU Moldovan voters exceed pro-EU Romanian ones the estimate turns negative — flagged, not hidden.
Method
Why raw counts: registered-diaspora denominators (Eurostat / MAE / AEP) disagree wildly, so turnout shares are unstable. The votes actually cast are known — so we plot those.
Preference groups: per round, two thin stems — EU-supportive (blue) vs far-right / sovereigntist (red) parties/platforms — in absolute numbers; a continuous line tracks total voters. RO far-right bloc per round (AUR / +SOS / Georgescu+Simion+Terheș / +POT / Simion). MD: EU-supportive = Sandu/PAS/ACUM; far-right / sovereigntist = Dodon/Stoianoglo/Patriotic bloc; ambiguous populists excluded.
Planned granularity: the EU-supportive group will be split into party families — centre-right, social-democratic, liberal, green & left, national-conservative — shown separately from far-right / populist platforms (per-party extraction from the source ballots).
Presence map: coloured by votes cast (the only complete, real signal) or by lean. The Eurostat/MAE/AEP registered estimates are too sparse to map. Moldova adds CEC gender + age-cohort demographics per country.
Sources: RO — AEP, aggregated per precinct. MD — CEC (2020 & 2025 raw from the API; 2024 per-country derived, marked ▨). Built from the DIVERGENTSIA pipeline.